Category Archives: Tony Blair

The future’s fair; the future’s orange

 

Tuned in to Sky News this evening to be greeted by the astonishing sight of Tony Blair singing the praises of Gordon Brown.

Who’d have thought it, eh?  Three years after the not wholly bloodless coup that saw him ejected from Downing Street and his auld adversary installed in his stead, there was the maestro, back in the limelight, centre stage in the incongruous surroundings of Trimdon Labour club.

Not that he looked that much like the old Blair, mind.  The last three years have not been kind to him.  His hair had greyed and thinned and he was almost painfully gaunt, the expensive Savile Row suit hanging from his narrowed frame.  Most startlingly, he was orange.  Bright orange.  Tangerine.

But it was Blair, all right.  There was no mistaking the gulps, the blinks, the jerky gestures, the faux emotion of the halting delivery, or the idiosyncratic enunciation: “Britain acted” became “Britain actud”.  Yes, there he was: Tony Blair lauding Gordon to the rafters.

But will it do Labour any good?  Hard to say.  Blair was a big hitter, of course, and the most successful Labour leader in history.  He is still sprinkled with stardust.

There again, he brings with him a lot of bad vibes, too, the very worst being the memory of Iraq.

But what cannot be doubted is that Gordon Brown must be feeling pretty desperate to trot out Tony Blair at this stage of the game.  Brown has always been desperate to make his own mark, not to go down in history as just the man who came in on Tony Blair’s coat-tails, only to be blown away at the next general election. 

It must have hurt him deeply – really deeply – to authorise Blair’s intervention today.

The old tricks don’t work now

Tony Blair’s appearance at the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war yesterday was inevitably controversial.  Equally inevitably, it revealed little or nothing that we did not already know.

If anyone had hoped that the former Prime Minister would recant his decision to take the country into a war that was almost certainly illegal, he would have been disappointed.  There was no apology, no regret; the bereaved parents of servicemen who filled the public gallery would undoubtedly have left feeling cheated of the “closure” that they hoped Blair’s testimony would bring them.

Watching Blair yesterday evening on Newsnight, I was struck by how much he had physically changed since that 1997 May morning, when he swaggered into Downing Street, clasping the extended palms of the flag-waving Labour staffers who lined his way. 

Here was a grey, haggard, drawn-looking man, with a hunted look in his eyes, almost unrecognisable as his former self.  His hands, reported Newsnight, shook as he opened the bottle of water at the start of the six-hour evidence session.  He looked deeply ill at ease.

The old Blair communication devices, however, were still on display: the widened eyes (sincerity), the answers prefaced with “Look” (authority), the catch in the voice (emotion). 

But, truth is, we  all know those tricks now and they just don’t work any more.

The only wonder is that they ever did.

Harriet misses the point

Prime Minister’s Questions today, with Harriet Harman deputising for the absent Gordon Brown:

Mr. David Jones (Clwyd, West) (Con): The Business Secretary once famously remarked that Labour was intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich. Is the right hon. and learned Lady equally relaxed about how the Prime Minister’s predecessor has decided to go about it?

Ms Harman: We have asked the National Equality Panel to look at how we can ensure that we help social mobility and—[Interruption.]

Mr. Speaker: Order. I want to hear the answer.

Ms Harman: We are determined to ensure that there is social mobility, and one of the important findings of the NEP report is that more unequal societies have less social mobility, which is why we are determined, with Government action, to continue to support policies that spread fairness and equality.

I’m sure that the Rt Hon Tony Blair (Fettes, Oxford and Louis Vuitton) is intensely grateful for the leg-up.

Hot gossip from Brussels

Early evening return from Brussels, where I have spent a couple of days visiting various European institutions, including the Parliament, the Commission, UKRep (the UK permanent representation to the EU) and the Welsh Assembly Government EU Office.

Brussels is a tremendously gossipy place at the best of times (even more so than Westminster), but at the moment is full of fevered speculation as to the outcome of the heads of government summit on Thursday, when the president of the European Council and the EU High Representative will be selected.

The generally accepted view is that Tony Blair is out of the running for president and that the Belgian Prime Minister, Herman Van Rompuy, is the hot favourite. 

Surprisingly enough, however, and more interestingly, there is a considerable body of opinion that David Miliband is still very much in the running for the possibly more powerful position of High Representative, notwithstanding the protestations of both the Foreign Secretary and his brother that he has ruled himself out.  Given that Van Rompuy is a centre right politician from a small country, the theory is that the High Rep position must go to a centre left candidate from a big country and that Miliband is the most obvious candidate. 

If that happens, it will be fascinating to see the response from within the Labour party.

The Eurostar, by the way, was spectacularly good.  It pulled out of Brussels Midi station at 4.00 pm and just over two hours later arrived at St Pancras.  Beats air travel any time.

Chopping the chancellor

Lord ChancellorLord Irvine has spoken of the “insensitive, high-handed and incoherent” manner in which Tony Blair abolished the thousand year-old office of Lord Chancellor in 2003.

The Guardian reports that Irvine was told of the proposal to replace the office with that of Secretary of State for Justice only a matter of days before it happened:

In the ensuing confrontation with Blair, Irvine writes, “I asked him how a decision of this magnitude could be made without prior consultation with me, the judiciary … and the palace. The prime minister appeared mystified and said that these changes always had to be carried into effect in a way that precluded such discussion because of the risk of leaks.

“I was surprised he thought the abolition of the office of Lord Chancellor was of the same order as any machinery of government changes.”

I have to say that I am surprised that Irvine was surprised.  Throughout his tenure of office, Blair repeatedly displayed an ignorance of, or indifference to, the British constitutional settlement that was truly breathtaking.  His half-baked reform of the House of Lords, for example, has left us with a constitutional dog’s breakfast that will take years to clear up.

So far as Blair was concerned, the ancient and constitutionally pivotal office of Lord High Chancellor was probably of no greater significance than that of Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Communities and Local Government.

Obedient servants

Gordon Brown has apparently instructed two senior civil servants to “lobby discreetly” for Tony Blair to become president of the European Union.

Given that the British people have never been consulted on the Lisbon Treaty and would probably reject both it and its creation, the European presidency, if given the chance, I find it hard to see that this is a matter of huge significance  to the British national interest, as opposed to the Labour party’s own narrow  political interest.

I also find it hard to see why the time and effort of two British public officials should be expended in such a manifestly partisan venture.

Motorcade man

David Miliband says he supports the notion that Tony Blair should become European Union president because he possesses what the Telegraph calls “the motorcade factor”:

“My own view is that we need somebody who can do more than simply run through the agenda. We need someone who, when he or she lands in Beijing or Washington or Moscow, the traffic does need to stop and talks do need to begin at a very, very high level. I think Europe has suffered from the lack of that clarity.”

I wonder if Mr Miliband has considered how well that would go down with the British people.  They already resent having  what they consider an unelected Labour Prime Minister foisted on them.  How much more would they resent being saddled with an unelected Labour European president who owed his status to a Lisbon Treaty on which they had also been denied a vote?

Right on, Tony

Speaking of Blair’s impending apotheosis, the Times provides an insight into the horse trading going on within Europe:

Ms Merkel has touted Jean-Claude Juncker, of Luxembourg, for the role, but the backroom dealer would hardly set European pulses racing. It is understood that President Sarkozy proposed Felipe González, of Spain, privately to Ms Merkel, but that she was suspicious of endorsing the Socialist.

Interesting to see that the Christian Democrat German Chancellor has clearly eliminated Blair from any suspicion of espousing  socialism.

Blair today, gone tomorrow

In what was by any standards a dire conference for Labour, the one bright spot was the news in Wednesday’s Times that Tony Blair would be campaigning for the party at the next general election.  Blair’s intervention was clearly welcomed by Labour election planners despairing of the Prime Minister’s clunky communication skills:

Downing Street figures expect the former Prime Minister to be asked to campaign in marginal seats where his appeal to “aspirational voters”, those whom Gordon Brown has struggled to reach, will matter most.

Two days later, and it’s all change.  The Times reports this morning that Blair is a near certainty for the post of European president:

Senior British sources have told The Times that President Sarkozy has decided that Mr Blair is the best candidate and that Angela Merkel has softened her opposition.

The former Prime Minister could be ushered into the European Union’s top post at a summit on October 29.

In such circumstances, Blair would, of course, be unavailable to lend Labour his assistance next May.  It would be unthinkable for the president of Europe to intervene politically in the electoral processes of any individual nation.

Back to the drawing board at No 10.

Blair on the rack

tony blairThe Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war may yet blow up in the face of Gordon Brown, with collateral damage to his predecessor.

It has been revealed today that the inquiry will take evidence on live television from “all key decision-makers in the different phases of the Iraq affair”.

This may prove a significant embarrassment not only to Mr Brown himself, but also to Tony Blair, just at the time when he is likely to be making his ever-so-discreet pitch for the European presidency (if, of course, Lisbon is ratified by the Irish).

William Hague has today expressed wholly justifiable concerns that “wriggle room” may be afforded to Mr Blair by virtue of Sir John Chilcot’s indication that evidence sessions may be held in private, not just when national security is at issue, but also when there is a “need for candour”.

One must hope that Sir John takes the robust view that simply sparing Blair’s blushes does not fall into either of those categories.

The indispensability of Peter Mandelson

MandelsonMartin Ivens, in today’s Sunday Times, indulges in what can best be described as an extended, free-form riff on the theme of the centrality of Peter Mandelson to the futures of Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, Europe and, ultimately, the world.

Mandelson, until his wider objectives are realised, is  central to the Labour party, too;  but, implies Ivens, only in a temporary shoring-up capacity, “the last prop holding up this ramshackle government”:

The former Prince of Darkness, now Gordon’s Good Angel, persuaded the last Blairites not to quit. Now he even pops into No 10 and tells the PM to stop e-mailing and go to bed.

Ivens’s analysis of Mandelson’s indispensability is compelling and probably, in large part, correct.  There is no doubt that, since his recall from Brussels last year, Mandelson’s assumption of power has been progressive, relentless and seemingly unstoppable.  He has now, it appears, even convinced Brown of the suicidal folly of his crude “Labour investment v. Tory cuts” stance, finessing the argument to the subtler and more credible one of prioritisation:

His is a rare voice of sanity. Brown, seduced by the notion he could rerun his favourite campaign of “Beware the Tory cuts”, has been stubbornly denying that a re-elected Labour government would have to make cuts too. In poll after poll the voters say they don’t believe him. Last Wednesday Mandelson finally called a halt to this nonsense. “There will be spending choices and a growing need for greater efficiency across the board, and less spending in some programmes,” he purred.

But, says Ivens, Peter Mandelson’s real ambitions extend well beyond the immediate and perhaps impossible task of saving Gordon from himself.  They reach out beyond these shores, back to Europe and to the campaign, formally declared last week, to install Tony Blair as EU president.  When the recalcitrant, muddle-headed Irish and Poles have finally seen sense and ratified the Lisbon treaty, the way will be clear for Blair to be promoted as the “Big Man” candidate for the presidency, poised to bestride the world stage, look Barack Obama in the eye and call the shots to Vladimir Putin.   Another good reason, by the way, for postponing as long as possible a general election that could see the referendum-pledged Tories returned to power before the treaty is ratified.

And where would that leave Peter Mandelson and Gordon Brown?  Ivens proffers his own hypothesis:

Perhaps it’s all a pipe dream. But if Tony got to Brussels, favours could be returned. Mandelson would make a fine presidential chef de cabinet. And when Gordon lost the election, his chums could fix up a big international job for him, too. We might be stuck with the three of them for another decade or so. This psycho-drama could run and run.

Pray God it doesn’t; but yes, it could.  Ivens’s article is one well worth reading, bookmarking and revisiting in, say, 18 months’ time, to assess how the “pipe dream” has panned out.

PR triumph

gordonbrownPerhaps predictably, the Iraq inquiry, announced with great fanfare by Gordon Brown last as part of his latest (but probably not his last) relaunch, has proved a dubious PR triumph for the Prime Minister.

The difficulty was that, although the inquiry was welcome and long overdue, it was proposed by the PM that it should be conducted in private and should not report until after the next general election.

Since making his announcement,  Brown has performed something of a U-turn, by announcing that parts of the inquiry would be held in public. 

Now Brown’s position has been completely undermined by the chairman of the inquiry, Sir John Chilcot, who has announced that, except where there are “compelling” security reasons to the contrary, all the evidence will be heard in public. 

This will doubtless be immensely pleasing to Tony Blair, coming as it will during his campaign to secure the post-Lisbon European presidency, and will assuredly do wonders for rebuilding his rather  brittle relationship with the accident-prone occupant of No 10.

Can’t Gordon be more like Leo?

st-asaph-cathedral

This afternoon, we went to St Asaph for the enthronement of Bishop Gregory.  The cathedral was full, the choir in fine voice and the organist on top form.

Before delivering his final blessing, the new bishop recalled the words of Pope Leo X, who reportedly declared on his accession: “Since God has given us the papacy, let us enjoy it.”

The bishop, who had previously told us how daunted he felt by the heavy responsibility that had passed to him, hastened to assure us that he did not propose to emulate the excesses of Leo, one of the worst popes ever, but nevertheless fully intended to enjoy his time at St Asaph.

Driving back, I reflected that Gordon Brown would do well to take a leaf out of Bishop Gregory’s book, and Pope Leo’s too.  He clearly is not enjoying being Prime Minister; he always looks thoroughly miserable.  And it’s nothing to do with the economic crisis; he’s looked thoroughly miserable since day one.

In this respect, he stands in contrast to both Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher, who, irrespective of the problems they faced, always seemed to be enjoying the prime ministerial role tremendously.

Perhaps – probably, indeed – Gordon is just one of nature’s unhappy people.  Perhaps he couldn’t lighten up, even if he tried. 

But it does seem a dreadful pity that, having attained the highest office in the land and achieved his lifetime’s ambition, he is so obviously having  such a bloody awful time.

Justice for Blairites

Today’s Telegraph contains an excellent article entitled Gordon Brown: Star of his own horror show.  I strongly recommend you read it.

In it, Riddell points out, accurately, that, serious as the assault on the PM is from across the political divide, his real problems lie within the Labour party itself. 

The fall-out from the McBride affair is far from over.  Yesterday, Ray Collins, Labour’s general secretary, effectively cut Derek Draper adrift from the party mainstream.  In a letter to the party’s National Executive Committee, Collins wrote:

I receive advice and opinion from many Labour Party supporters in my work as general secretary but I decide what advice I take or seek and act in a manner appropriate with my values and those of the party, which certainly does not include smears or personal attacks. I want to reiterate that Derek Draper does not hold a position or role with the Labour Party and this will remain the case.

Draper, for his own part, has admitted that he is considering his position as editor of the LabourList website and will decide within a week whether or not to “soldier on”.

Against this background of disarray, there will be many, as Riddell observes, who will wish to take advantage of Brown’s weakened position to settle old scores:

The danger for Mr Brown is that the ministers and apparatchiks within his own party who claim to have been briefed against by Mr McBride could almost fill Wembley stadium.

The actual revolt, however, coalesces round a small but vocal core: the Blairites. By chance, the heavenly chorus of Blair loyalists has struck up just as their master is touring radio stations, promoting his Faith Foundation and “doing God”. Mr Brown, meanwhile, is being condemned as an overlord of darkness.

That stereotype has its roots not in Mr McBride’s behaviour, but in the long Blair/Brown war, which made the Capulets and Montagues seem neighbourly.

I can vouch for the reality of this internecine enmity.  Yesterday, a Labour parliamentary colleague told me how bad it had become:

“I don’t know why everyone is so surprised.  It’s the way those people have always operated.  This is justice for Blairites as much as it is for Tories.”

He then went on to repeat accusations that he said had been made against two very senior Blairite MPs.  They were shocking, but so egregious as to be almost laughable.  Nevertheless, if I were one of the two individuals, I would be livid.

On Monday, the Parliamentary Labour party will convene in an atmosphere of anger and division.  Riddell tells us that staff at No 10 are “struggling to assemble a damage limitation strategy.”

I bet they are; and whatever they come up with had better be good. Really good.

Obama’s good friend

There is intense rivalry among European leaders over who will be the first to meet President Obama after his inauguration. 

Gordon Brown will no doubt have been quietly pleased that he was the first to receive a telephone call from the new President. 

But imagine how he will feel when he sees this.