Category Archives: David Miliband

Swings and roundabouts

An intelligent and lucidly-argued interview by David Miliband with John Humphrys on this morning’s Today programme, over what Miliband acknowledged is the crisis in Georgia, will have done nothing to ease the discomfort of the Prime Minister in the approach to the party conference season. It was an impressive performance.

On the other hand, his robust defence of the Atlantic alliance, his assertion that former Soviet countries such as the Ukraine should be free to join it in the right circumstances and his ready recognition that membership of NATO carries with it the obligation to go to war in defence of a member formerly under the Russian sphere of influence will have done little to endear him to many of the denizens of his own back benches.

So it’s not all bad news for Downing Street.

Back to haunt him?

Gordon Brown says that his relationship with David Miliband is “fine”. Speaking on a flight to Beijing, the Prime Minister told the press:

“The article he (Mr Miliband) wrote in the Guardian was an article any member of the Cabinet could have written – or I could have written.

“These are debates that all members of the Government have got to be involved in. There are no difficulties with the article.”

He continued:

“We will get on with the business of government and expose the differences between the two parties. We are going to go on and win.”

His choice of words is spookily reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher’s on 21 November, 1990, just after she had unconvincingly won a leadership ballot against Michael Heseltine. She declared: “We fight on; we fight to win.”

The next day she resigned.

Michael Heseltine never became Prime Minister.

Revenge of the Blairistas

If ever there were any doubt that Gordon Brown’s current difficulties are being stoked up in the most concerted way possible by Blairite loyalists, it is today dispelled by a leaked memo from Tony Blair to an unspecified colleague, covered simultaneously in the Mail on Sunday, Telegraph, Times and Observer.

At the same time, the Sunday Mirror carries a report of an interview with the former cabinet minister Stephen Byers, also covered by the Telegraph, Times and Observer, who directly calls Brown’s leadership into question, as part of a clarion call for Labour to “refresh itself”:

“As David Miliband said earlier this week, Labour has to refresh itself,” he added. “That is not just a question about Gordon Brown’s leadership, but must also include the policies we put forward.”

It is the Blair memo, however, that will call the PM the most discomfiture. Blair dismisses Brown’s first party conference for its “hubris and vacuity” and is scornful of Brown’s cack-handed tactics and lack of strategic vision:

“There has been a lamentable confusion of tactics and strategy. Tactically, it was thought clever to define by reference to TB i.e. this was not the era of spin, we are going to be honest, the style would change etc.

“Strategically the consequence was twofold: a) we dissed our own record – instead of saying we are building on the achievements, confronting new challenges, we joined in the attack on our own ten years – a fatal mistake if we do not correct it and b) because we were disowning ourselves as a government, we junked the TB policy agenda but had nothing to put in its place.

“So tactically we took the benefit of the anti-TB feeling, but strategically, we ended up accepting our opponents’ propaganda and appearing incapable of articulating a forward policy agenda.”

The first interesting question is: which Blairite, or Blairites, leaked the memo (which was apparently written) shortly after last year’s Conservative conference) to the press? The Observer notes that:

“Blair is in regular contact with an inner circle of intimates, ranging from close political friends such as the European Commissioner Peter Mandelson and former minister Alan Milburn to former Downing Street apparatchiks like Matthew Taylor, now running the RSA – as well as some serving cabinet ministers, including Miliband, and even Brown himself.”

The second, even more interesting, question is: when Gordon finds out, what will he do about it?

Penny drops

The penny appears finally to have dropped with Labour MPs – if they get rid of Gordon, they must expect an almost immediate general election. As I pointed out last Saturday, the electorate simply wouldn’t stand for having another Prime Minister imposed on them without having had any say in the process.

Today’s Times reports “a backlash among mainstream Labour MPs against David Miliband’s decision to stake his claim to become leader, amid fears that his move could hasten a general election before the first signs of an economic recovery.”

One MP is reported as musing querulously:

“Have they not done their sums? If Brown is ousted in the autumn and [we have] a new leader next year, there will have to be an election almost immediately, even though the economy will not have had a chance to recover. This is a kamikaze move.”

He is, of course, absolutely right. If Gordon goes, then to the polls we all go.

So Labour MPs have the month of August (the whole of which, unbelievably, Miliband is taking off), to ask themselves, Dirty Harry-style: “Do I feel lucky?

Bottling it again

David Miliband’s cancellation of his India visit was, according to the Times, on the orders of the Prime Minister, who has called two “political sessions” of Cabinet and an “awayday” for early in September.

At the same time, the PM appears to have rowed back from an immediate dust-up with Miliband; his spokesman yesterday said:

“We agree with David that the whole party should pull together, take the fight to the Tories and focus on dealing with the real issues affecting people’s lives.”

Pretty weak, ineffectual stuff. Miliband should now go away on his hols feeling rather chipper.

Texas standoff

It appears to be generally agreed that civil war has broken out in the Labour party. That is probably right, but it isn’t a shooting war quite yet. But it will be soon.

Miliband’s handling of the first twenty-four hours of the conflict hasn’t been as sure-footed as his exceptionally clever article in yesterday’s Guardian led one to believe would be the case. Indeed, the answers he gave to press questions yesterday were pretty weaselly, a course he has pursued on today’s Jeremy Vine show.

I have the impression that Miliband is surprised at the speed with which events are moving, but he must surely have expected the reaction to his article to be fairly dramatic. It may be, of course, that he is simply waiting to see what further support is forthcoming before making his challenge more overt, but he had better get a move on, or face the accusation of cowardice.

Meanwhile, Gordon Brown is reacting with his customary blend of bile and indecision. On the one hand, he has apparently authorised “sources close to him” to accuse Miliband of “a surprising lack of judgment and maturity” and on the other he seems to be extending an olive branch, by allowing other similarly close sources to indicate to Miliband that “he can still prove that this isn’t plotting and this will all calm down”.

At the moment, therefore, we are engaged in a rather nervous Texas standoff, neither protagonist apparently willing to take any truly decisive action. This can’t last forever; indeed, Miliband is scheduled to go away on holiday this weekend, a prospect he can’t be relishing, given the uncertainty of his position.

More Labour MPs have put their heads above the parapet; both Geraldine Smith and Bob Marshall-Andrews have castigated Miliband, while Denis MacShane has urged Labour MPs to “follow Miliband’s leadership”. And John McDonnell has just announced that he would like to challenge Brown for leadership of the party.

I had anticipated a quiet August, but Miliband’s article has changed all that.

The standoff can’t last forever. All hell is about to break loose within the Labour party.

Stop press: The Foreign Office has just announced that Miliband has cancelled a planned visit to India this September.

Death by irrelevance

David Miliband’s piece in this morning’s Guardian is headed: “Against all odds we can still win, on a platform for change.” It is one of the most fascinating I have read for a long time.

The article contains little overt clue as to what Miliband wants to change. He seems happy to the point of hubris with Labour’s “achievements” and shows no sign of wishing to jettison the interventionist, high-regulating approach that has so alienated the British people from his party; on the contrary, he shows huge enthusiasm for even more intervention, yet more regulation. This is a course, Miliband declares, that will in fact empower people:

“If people and business are to take responsibility, you need government to act as a catalyst. High polluting products will not disappear unless government regulates. New nuclear power stations need planning policy to facilitate them. And if we act through the EU, we green the largest single market in the world.”

So what DOES Mr Miliband want to change? Well, he doesn’t really say. Not in so many words. There is some formulaic talk about “protection from a downturn made in Wall Street” and distributing “more power and control to citizens over the education, healthcare and social services they receive”, but he doesn’t say what he would do to achieve it.

No, most of Miliband’s article consists of a discussion of the Tories, David Cameron in particular. Cameron, he says, “is a politician of the status quo, not change”. Unlike Mr Miliband himself, no doubt. The Tories are in favour of “charity, deregulation and lower spending”, clearly anathema to Mr Miliband.

And yet Mr Miliband concedes that Cameron is “likeable and sometimes hard with disagree with”. Unlike, reads the subtext, Gordon Brown – who, significantly, receives no mention anywhere among the article’s 936 words.

Miliband’s article, though short on detail, is heavy with mood music. It is aimed over the heads of the mass of the Guardian readership and squarely at the nervous ranks of Labour backbenchers sunning themselves fitfully in Cornwall and Tuscany, much as the broadcasts of Tokyo Rose were targeted at homesick American GIs, sweltering unloved in the jungles of south-east Asia.

And, just as Rose played old, sentimental ballads, redolent with emotion, to the lovelorn doughboys, so Miliband plays the old, familiar songs he knows his readers are yearning for. Hence the talk of more regulation, windfall taxes and even the increasingly rarely carried party membership card. This is the sort of stuff Miliband knows they long to hear.

For, far from being designed to restore confidence to that febrile audience, Miliband’s piece is calculated to unsettle it still further. It is a stiletto attack of delicate but ruthless precision. The Tories have a highly persuasive, charismatic leader and could very well win, it is saying, while we are led by a man so supremely, monumentally ineffectual that I can’t even be bothered to mention his name. Brown, Molotov-like, has become a non-person.

This is not, as the Times describes it, the “first salvo in a deliberate challenge to Gordon Brown”. It is much more subtle than that.

The challenge will come later. Miliband’s article is but a step, albeit a highly significant one, in what must come first: Brown’s political assassination. Death by irrelevance.

Being Himself

Multiple signs of concern among the top echelons of the Labour party about Gordon’s performance. Jack Straw, Secretary of State for Justice, and arguably the safest pair of hands in the Labour high command, has admitted that David Cameron’s campaign is “resonating” with the public and warns that the government must “adapt” if it is to keep power.

Tessa Jowell, Olympics minister, has also called on the Prime Minister to be “authentic”, true to himself and to Labour’s values, saying that there is no quick fix to restore the government’s battered standing.

David Miliband has also put his own two pennyworth in, urging Gordon to counter the perception that he has “run out of steam” and “lost the will to fight”.

Jowell’s advice to Gordon is amazingly blunt. Conceding that Gordon is not the most attractive of personalities, she advises him to “be himself” and accept that people will not necessarily like him:

“What people want in modern leaders is to know them, not necessarily to like them, to feel that they want to go on holiday with them, but to know them, to know their frailties, their strengths, what they like about them, what they don’t like about them, to understand their attitudes and core beliefs.”

The problem with Gordon, however, is that he usually is “being himself” and it is all really pretty unattractive. Consider, for example, his New Year message to the British people. I won’t cherrypick extracts, but will let you read it here. To say that it is wooden, turgid and boring is grossly to understate its awfulness. There is not a single shred of humanity in its whole 1,057 words. Nothing to inspire, nothing to motivate, nothing to enthuse. It is, as Tony Blair might have said, just clunking.

And it is that clunkiness that makes it extraordinary unlikely that Gordon will ever win the hearts of the people of this country, no matter how much Straw, Jowell and Miliband try to talk him up.

He is, after all, just being himself.

Sea change

Wall-to-wall bad news for Gordon Brown and Labour in the Sundays.

The Observer tells of David Miliband’s unhappiness over Gordon’s rewriting of chunks of Miliband’s pro-European speech last week (which, in my view, was still far too integrationist even after Gordon’s tweaks).

The Mail reports politically embarrassing links between Gordon’s interesting Foreign Office appointment, Lord Malloch-Brown, and a left-wing anti-Bush charity.

The Telegraph tells us that “A rising note of panic surrounds Number 10”.

And, most devastatingly, a YouGov poll for the Times reports that Gordon’s poll ratings have plunged to an all-time low. His personal approval figures have slumped in a month from +30 to -10.

It all looks pretty bloody for the PM. The weakness he showed over the pulled general election has caused him deep damage. His government looks directionless and unmotivated and there are clearly big internal divisions (I would be surprised if David Miliband was not the direct or indirect source of the Observer story).

At the same time, David Cameron is displaying enormous confidence, with policy announcement after policy announcement. He has found his line at PMQs and makes Gordon look a ninny at almost every outing.

Put simply, and as dispassionately as I can, I believe that we are witnessing a sea change in British politics last seen in the couple of years prior to the 1997 election. Gordon must expect months of similarly bad headlines. It’s not going to get better for him.

Weird Science

In their pathetic, failed attempt to stem the tide of crime that is, to the despair of its citizens, now engulfing this country, Labour have increasingly put their faith in the science of genetics. As a consequence, this country now maintains the largest DNA database in the world – much of it taken from innocent people who would rather it were destroyed.

Given their enthusiastic embrace of DNA science, one might have thought that Labour would recognise the force of the analysis of the recent EU Treaty carried out by the respected think-tank Open Europe, which reveals that it is 96 per cent identical in substance to the EU Constitutional Treaty, which was rejected in referendums in 2005 by the electorates of France and Holland and then avowedly abandoned.

Not so. Only this morning, David Miliband, boy wonder Foreign Secretary, asserted before an audience of millions that the Treaty was different “in absolute essence” from the Constitution. Speaking, apparently in all seriousness, on the Today programme, Miliband said:

“We have not got a European constitution.

“Twenty-seven European heads of government all signed a document in June, after nearly two years of negotiation, saying the constitutional concept has been abandoned.

“I think that as Parliament gets to grips with the reform treaty that comes out, as they look line by line, they will see first that it is good for Britain, second that it is very different from the constitution in absolute essence, and third that the red lines, the key national interests in foreign policy and other areas of the UK have been protected.”

Miliband is, of course, talking nonsense, which, being a bright boy, he knows full well. A quick glance at Open Europe’s analysis reveals the extent to which the EU Treaty and the Constitution are as closely related as David and his kid brother, Ed.

Labour’s general elecion manifesto in 2005 contained a very clear commitment on the Constitutional Treaty. It promised:

The EU now has 25 members and will continue to expand. The new Constitutional Treaty ensures the new Europe can work effectively, and that Britain keeps control of key national interests like foreign policy, taxation, social security and defence. The Treaty sets out what the EU can do and what it cannot. It strengthens the voice of national parliaments and governments in EU affairs. It is a good treaty for Britain and for the new Europe. We will put it to the British people in a referendum and campaign whole-heartedly for a ‘Yes’ vote to keep Britain a leading nation in Europe.

The obvious question is why, if Labour in 2005 thought that the Constitutional Treaty was such a belting deal for Britain that they were prepared to “campaign whole-heartedly” for a “Yes” vote in a referendum, they are unwilling in 2007 to do the same for its 96 per cent sibling.

The answer, of course, is that they know they would lose.

So that’s fair enough, then.

The White Flag

David Miliband has completed the capitulation half-announced last week by formally running up the white flag. In an article published in today’s Observer, he declares that he “will vote for Gordon Brown to lead Labour’s drive”. Thank goodness for that; Miliband’s dithering coyness was becoming intensely irritating.

The point about Miliband was that he was sufficiently young and telegenic to make him, in some Labour supporters’ eyes, a credible challenger to David Cameron. Now he has, wisely I feel, decided to shelve his ambitions and wait until Brown goes after the next General Election.

The next interesting question is: who, if anyone, will seriously challenge Gordon Brown? (I am of, course, discounting Michael Meacher, for reasons obvious to everyone except Mr Meacher himself.) The website launched by Alan Milburn and Charles Clarke so enigmatically in February is still there, but offers no clues as to who is likely to come forward.

My own suspicion is that Alan Millburn himself will emerge as the “stop Gordon” candidate if nobody else is brave enough to stick his or her head above the parapet. He may attract sufficient support to worry the Chancellor, but he will be unlikely to win. What he will achieve will be a delicious prolongation of Labour’s spring of discontent. I can’t wait.