If autumn has arrived in the Vale of Clwyd, it is still very much summer in London. The hanging baskets in Victoria Street – that concrete and glass canyon of government offices – are flowering and the lime trees in Westminster Abbey churchyard are in full leaf. I cannot remember such a long, warm summer. It doesn’t feel natural.
In the circumstances, today’s report by Sir Nicholas Stern, the Government’s Chief Economist, on the potential economic effects of global warming, is timely. According to this morning’s Today programme, Sir Nicholas is likely to say that, if unaddressed, global warming will lead to a crisis on the scale of the 1930’s depression and will cost the world £3.6 trillion – a mind-bogglingly incomprehensible figure.
The Government is trailing its intention to address the problem by imposing “green” taxes. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. The problem with taxes on energy consumption is that they tend to be regressive, affecting those on lower incomes disproportionately more than the better-off. The Government must be careful to reassure the electorate, who will be paying the taxes, that this is not simply another revenue-raising exercise. Since they are serial offenders on stealth taxation, they have an uphill struggle.
Any green taxes should be fiscally neutral, or as neutral as possible. We are, after all, trying to change consumption habits, not to tax more without affecting that consumption. This should not be unachievable. Sir Nicholas tells us that if we address the problem quickly, we can avoid global catastrophe by spending the equivalent of 1% of GDP.
The Government should also resist the temptation to react to the report with grandstanding “initiatives”. This will be counter-intuitive to a Government that is obsessed with eye-catching headlines. It is is also, probably, a vain hope. According to today’s papers, Gordon Brown’s first action will be to appoint Al Gore, the former US Vice-President, as his special adviser on climate change.
It was Gore, of course, who recently produced and presented the well-received film on climate change, “An Inconvenient Truth”. He proved a surprisingly good communicator, markedly changed from the rather wooden Veep of the Clinton era. He is not, however, a scientifically trained climatologist. So why is Gordon appointing him? Not, surely, just to grab a headline in tomorrow’s Sun?
One of the most celebrated tourist sights of the Palace of Westminster is the statue of Viscount Falkland in St Stephen’s Hall. One hundred years ago this very day, a suffragette, Margery Humes, chained herself to the statue and had to be released with bolt cutters; the damage to the statue’s spur and sword can still be seen.
