Category Archives: Alistair Darling

Gordon’s X Factor

alan sugarThe contents of  leaked e-mails from Lord Mandelson to Derek Draper (an interesting question being: who leaked them?) should really surprise no one.  They merely serve to illustrate that, whatever his faults, Mandelson is a shrewd judge of character.

Discussing Brown’s concerns about his own image, Mandelson observes:

“The point you make about GB ‘being himself’ (whatever that is) is right.  But this is no substitute for policy formulation and taking well prepared, well ordered decisions. This is more the problem than telling people you watch X Factor…

“He is a self-conscious person, physically and emotionally. He is not as comfortable with his own skin as Tony [Blair] was. A new public persona cannot be glued on to him”.

Mandelson is correct that Brown has an almost obsessive anxiety to appear normal and in touch with popular culture.  Last week, there was the strange episode when the Prime Minister confided on GMTV that he had watched the Britain’s Got Talent final and had subsequently telephoned Simon Cowell to enquire about the wellbeing of Susan Boyle. 

Subsequently, there was the equally strange announcement of the reality TV star Alan Sugar as “enterprise champion”.  That, I had thought, was Lord Mandelson’s role as Secretary of State for Bizz.

Sir Alan’s role is set out in a press release on the No 10 website:

He is expected to give advice on how to ensure small firms and entrepreneurs make the most of the real help available from Government and other organisations. He will champion the causes of viable small companies with banks and help to ensure the voices of small firms and entrepreneurs are heard by Government, suppliers and other entities.

I am particularly pleased that Sir Alan will “champion the causes of viable small companies with banks”.  I spend a lot of time writing to both Lord Mandelson and Alistair Darling complaining about the lack of credit available to viable small companies in Clwyd West, particularly from banks that have been bailed out by the taxpayers’ billions.

Bank managers beware: in future I will be asking Sir Alan Sugar to pick up the phone and shout at you.

Steady, Darling

DarlingA remarkable feature of today’s PMQs was the demeanour of the Chancellor, Alistair Darling.  He figured heavily in ferocious exchanges between David Cameron and the Prime Minister:

Mr. Cameron: Let me turn to the issue of the economy and let us take just one key individual, the person responsible for steering us through this recession: the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Prime Minister refuses to talk about him in anything other than the past tense. We know that the Home Secretary is going, we know that the Communities Secretary is going, so can the Prime Minister tell us whether the Chancellor, sitting there in front of us, will still be in his post in a week’s time?

The Prime Minister: Once again, that is nothing to do with policy. The right hon. Gentleman is incapable of dealing with the big issues that face this country. Let me say what this Chancellor is achieving. This Chancellor is leading the rest of the world in taking us out of recession. This Chancellor has taken action that the Conservative party has refused to support…

Mr. Cameron: If the Chancellor is doing such a good job, will the Prime Minister tell us whether he will be there in a week’s time?

The Prime Minister: I have said that the Chancellor is doing a very good job, and I hope that the right hon. Gentleman would agree with me. The Conservatives are the only party to want an election when they have no policy to deal with the recession. They want an election, but they have no policy to help home owners. They want an election, but they have no policy to help the unemployed. That is a party that talks, talks and talks but has nothing to do with action.

All the while, as Cameron and Brown were arguing over his performance, his track record and his future, Darling sat there impassively; no anger, no scorn, no exasperation, no distress, no discernible human emotion.

It was quite unsettling; I have blogged previously, Darling is possessed of an almost Zen-like composure; nothing upsets him, nothing angers or provokes him.

Perhaps, given what he is about to experience, it is a fortunate trait.

The bloodletting begins

It seems that we are already seeing the beginning of the bloodletting which was expected to start after this week’s Euro elections.

The BBC has just reported that Jacqui Smith is set to resign as Home Secretary, which may give some credence to speculation that the Prime Minister intends to move Alistair Darling to the Home Office, to make way for Ed Balls at the Treasury.

None of this would be likely to be greeted positively; Balls is roundly disliked within the Labour Party and it would be widely regarded as unacceptable to have a Scottish MP in charge of policing in England and Wales.

There will undoubtedly talk of “rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic”, but at least the Titanic slipped quietly under the water.  SS Labour is unlikely to be so quiescent.

Doesn’t add up

darlingThe Institute for Fiscal Studies, the country’s leading economic think tank, has comprehensively demolished Alistair Darling’s budget, less than 24 hours after its delivery.

The measures announced by Darling, says the IFS, will fill only half of the projected deficit of £90 billion by 2017 -2018; to address the deficit will cost every family £2,840 extra every year in additional taxes or public spending cuts.  Furthermore, it will take until 2032 before national debt falls below 40 per cent of national income, the level that Gordon Brown pledged not to breach in those long-lost days of prudence.

The full scale of the impact of the downturn on the economy was made clear by IFS director Robert Chote, a man not given to hyperbole, who said:

“Taking the PBR and Budget forecasts together, the Treasury’s assessment of the fiscal damage wrought by the current economic and financial crisis is breathtaking.

“Put simply, the Treasury forecasts now imply that the crisis has dealt a permanent hit to the Exchequer costing around 6.5 per cent of national income or £90 billion a year in today’s money – from a combination of lost tax revenues and higher social security costs.”

Coming, as it does, from a completely independent, hugely respected body, this criticism could scarcely be more damaging to the Government.  Brown and Darling have a £45 billion black hole in their budget, which will need to be filled by whichever party wins the next general election.

But that’s something Gordon and Alistair would prefer you not to think about, just now.

Too late to moan

The Labour strapline for the budget was “you cannot cut your way out of recession”.  Gordon Brown used the phrase at PMQs and Alistair Darling repeated it in the budget statement, as did a succession of Labour talking heads on TV and radio all afternoon.

Paul Murphy also, perhaps unwisely, decided to  deploy the formula, quoted in today’s  Daily Post:

“It is only right that at this time the Government tightens its belt alongside families and businesses, but we cannot cut our way out of recession, as many of our opponents would propose, particularly on spending on frontline services.”

The Welsh Assembly, however, has received a revenue budget reduction of £216 million, only partially compensated for by a Barnettised increase of £46 million, and a capital budget reduction of £200 million.

 That’s not a cut?

 Plaid Cymru are, peculiarly, bleating badly about this.  But they chose their Assembly coalition partners, so it’s a bit rich to moan now.  When the Labour ship goes down, they must expect to go down with it.

Pips squeaking

There was a time, not so long ago, when I used to feel quite sorry for Alistair Darling.  Here was a man who had acceded to one of the great offices of state, only to find that he was little more than a puppet, his strings pulled by the great puppet-master next door. 

His personal authority was virtually nil.  He was in office, but not in control of his powerful department.  That remained the fiefdom of its former incumbent.

However, over the months since Gordon’s anointment, it has become increasingly clear that Darling is now entirely reconciled to his surrogate status.  Indeed, he appears almost at peace with it, his demeanour being one of impassive,  Zen-like calm. 

Today, he stood at the dispatch box, utterly composed, reading out a list of figures so terrible, so thoroughly frightful, that they would have engendered the severest anxiety in anyone unable to achieve the state of nirvana that Alistair has attained:

Our own figures for public sector net borrowing will be £175 billion this year, or some 12 per cent. of GDP. From 2010, as the economy starts to recover, and the measures announced in November and today take effect, borrowing will fall to £173 billion, then £140 billion, £118 billion, and then £97 billion. As a share of GDP, our borrowing will be 11.9 per cent. of GDP next year, and then, as we move towards balance, 9.1 per cent. in 2011-12, then 7.2 per cent., and then 5.5 per cent. in 2013-14.

This was way, way beyond anything that anyone had anticipated, infinitely worse than the projections Darling announced only last November.  And, indeed, the rest of his speech was full of such appalling statistics that Members were left gasping.

There was, as I anticipated, something small for pensioners and, yes, some funny business with tax credits.  But there was little cheer for Labour.  No fiscal stimulus, because Mervyn King had put a stop to it.  Virtually no giveaways.  Just bad, bad news, for the country as a whole, and particularly for the Labour backbenchers. 

They sat mostly silent and unanimated, save for the briefest of visceral, tribal cheers when Darling announced the 50p tax rate on incomes over £150,000.  Harriet Harman’s face creased into a vindictive and incongruous smile at that point.

But she shouldn’t have been so pleased.  Her colleague had just confirmed that Labour had not abolished boom and bust and had broken a key election pledge.  The economy, it was now known beyond doubt, had been trashed by her own party: damaged so badly that it will take the best part of a generation to repair.  Jobs are disappearing by the thousand daily.  Businesses are folding.  Lives are being ruined.

And yet she, too, in her own strange way, was happy.  Alistair had just confirmed the death of New Labour.  Class warfare was reopened.  The red flag had been hoisted.  The pips would squeak again.

Softening up

Long gone are the days of budget purdah, when the Chancellor would cloister himself away for weeks on end prior to emerging from No 11 clutching his red box.   Ken Clarke brought an end to that tradition.

However, no budget in recent years has been more heavily trailed than this year’s, which is also the latest in recent memory.  You can read about it here and here and here.  And if you want to see the Chancellor making a brave pre-budget face of the downturn, you can view his viral YouTube video here.

All this authorised leaking has been done for one very good reason: you get the electorate used to the idea of bad news, rather than hit them with it on budget day.  So when Alistair Darling announces the £15 billion “efficiency savings” (not spending cuts, you understand), the £160 billion public sector borrowing, and the estimate of a decade to sort out the public finances, it won’t seem too bad.

Instead, attention will be focused (Labour hope) on the metaphorical rabbit Darling pulls out of the hat on budget day.  There’s bound to be one, at least; there always is.  Expect some apparent largesse for pensioners or some funny business with tax credits.

But remember what happened when Gordon Brown announced the 10p tax band in his 2007 budget.  Hailed as a triumph by his back benchers, who waved their order papers in immoderate glee, it was later shown to be an enormous con when the Red Book was examined.

That’s the way it is with Labour budgets; there is always a legion of devils in the detail. 

And this year, given the bombed-out state of the economy, it is likely that the Chancellor will be obliged to be even more creative than usual.

No sign of McCavity

The G20 has come and gone, but not without the inevitable portentous, overblown pronouncement from Gordon Brown. 

The deal struck at the ExCel centre was “historic”, he declared.  A “new world order” had been created, bringing with it a “plan for global recovery and reform”. 

Barack Obama was a little more circumspect, calling G20 a “turning point” for the global economy, which would put it on the “path to recovery”. 

So who was right?  Alistair Darling, appearing on this morning’s Today programme, called the deal a “significant step forward” (which it is, if only for the injection of cash into the IMF), but that “it couldn’t be oversold” (which is precisely what Gordon Brown is doing).  

So, on the whole, Darling appears to be with Obama. 

John Humphrys had a field day with the hapless Chancellor, pointing out that in fact there had been an utter failure of regulation in this country, with the Government positively encouraging an orgy of personal borrowing that had brought the economy to its knees. 

Darling stuttered and stammered and said that the same had happened in other countries.  Humphrys retorted, not unreasonably, that we didn’t elect the governments of other countries; we had elected Brown and Darling.

It was a long interview, by the end of which I felt rather sorry for Darling.  He had taken the punishment for Gordon Brown’s hubris, and not for the first time, either.

If Gordon Brown wants to make silly, exaggerated, boastful, claims, why doesn’t he submit himself to forensic scrutiny from the likes of John Humphrys?  Why does he always leave  it to others to take the rap?

Scottish humbug

humbugsThe historian Thomas Babington Macaulay once remarked that: “We know no spectacle so ridiculous as the British public in one of its periodical fits of morality.”

That was very much my reaction when I read the following pronouncement delivered yesterday by our august Prime Minister to the Scottish Labour party conference in Dundee (and what a fun event that must be):

“Only government can make the markets work in the public interest and not their own interest.

“We believe that markets need not just money men but morals, that being fair matters far more than being laissez-faire and that banks must always serve the public, not just serve themselves.”

“Being fair matters more than being laissez-faire” has a nice, alliterative ring to it; on the other hand, so did “British jobs for British workers”, and look where that landed the Prime Minister.  No doubt some No. 10 backroom boy burned the midnight oil very late to craft that particular piece of New Labour humbug.

Politicians who talk of morality are setting themselves upon a pedestal that is frequently rocky and unstable.  So, indeed, it is in the case of this Government.

Was Labour acting in the strict public interest and not its own, for example, in urging Lloyds Bank to take over HBOS, with its panoply of toxic assets, just when it was staring defeat in the face at Glenrothes?   Was Alistair Darling entirely altruistic when, at the same time, he “made it very clear” to Lloyds that the headquarters of HBOS should remain in Edinburgh (for whose South West constituency he just happens to be MP) after the takeover?

And what of Adair Turner’s revelation that the Government applied pressure to the FSA to regulate companies like HBOS with a “light touch” and to avoid being “heavy and intrusive”?  Was that an example of stern Labour financial probity?

The more one looks at Labour’s stewardship of the economy over the last twelve years, the more examples one finds of the way they have used the system for their own unalloyed political ends.   Morality has had precious little to do with it.

The trouble with humbug, as Gordon found out with “British jobs”, is that it tends to stick in your teeth.   He should have learned to avoid it by now.

Costs nothing

gordon-brownGordon Brown, it would appear, has rejected the advice of Alistair Darling and other cabinet colleagues and refused to take the opportunity, on his visit to the United States, to apologise for the deficiencies of the financial regulatory system put in place under his Chancellorship.  

According to the Telegraph: 

he defiantly believes that the problems were unique and were not the fault of the system he put in place and presided over while at the Treasury for a decade.

The difficulty for Mr Brown is that increasingly few people share his view.  Last week, Adair Turner, the chairman of the FSA, told the Treasury select committee that the Authority had been subject to political pressure to apply a non-intrusive “light touch” in regulating the financial sector. 

Today, John Kingman, head of UK Financial Investments, the company that represents the taxpayer’s interests in the quasi-nationalised banks, also appeared before the Treasury Select committee and was equally critical.  To quote the Telegraph:

He told the [committee]: “There are issues around how the Treasury and the regulator identified problems.”

When asked whether he was reluctant to admit that the system that Labour put in place in 1997 had been a massive failure, he replied: “I don’t think I am massively reluctant.”

It is becoming increasingly obvious that Labour were guilty of encouraging a lax style of regulation on the part of those whose responsibility it was to be alert to the very problems that have manifested themselves in the British financial sector.  Certainly, the sub-prime problem began in America, but the British institutions were insufficiently rigorously regulated so as to minimise the impact of the economic tsunami when it hit the UK.

 Brown positively encouraged the boom and was, equally, content to tolerate (to quote Adair Turner) “a style of regulation and a philosophy in regulation which was, in retrospect, mistaken.” 

And of course Brown won’t apologise.  It’s not in his nature.  He wants to be seen with Obama bestriding the world that he, personally, has saved.   

The word “sorry” doesn’t figure in his vocabulary.

Change of tack?

An interview Alistair Darling has given to the Telegraph appears to  signal a change in strategy on the part of the Government – or at least some elements of it. 

In it, Darling acknowledges that the Government has failed in its regulation of the banking sector:

“There are a lot of lessons to be learnt by regulators, governments, all of us.

“The key thing that went wrong was that a culture was allowed to develop over the last 15 years or so where the relationship between what people did and what they got went way out of alignment, especially at the top end.

“If there is a fault, it is our collective responsibility. All of us have to have the humility to accept that over the last few years, things got out of alignment.”

It looks like the Government now accepts that the electorate haven’t bought the “global crisis” line that Gordon Brown had been spinning for the past nine months or so and has decided instead  to try apology and humility as a way of attempting to make its peace.

Darling also appears to rule out changing the law to recover Fred Goodwin’s pension fund and  to accept that the money may, indeed, be irrecoverable – directly contradicting  Harriet Harman, who adopted a far more bellicose stance in her Andrew Marr Show interview yesterday.

The Telegraph suggests that the pressure is now on Gordon Brown “to offer an apology for his role in the financial meltdown during a visit to Washington this week.”

If such an uncharacteristic thing were to happen, it would be fascinating indeed and proof positive that Labour has decided on a complete change of tack.

Diversionary tactics

In an intelligent article in this morning’s Telegraph, Jeff Randall points out that Fred Goodwin has been set up as an Aunt Sally (albeit a very highly remunerated one) in an attempt by the Government to shift attention from the dog’s breakfast it is making of the British economy:

If the inappropriately named Goodwin did not exist, the Government’s Department of Propaganda would need to invent him. By casting Sir Fred as the pantomime villain – the credit crunch’s Dick Dastardly – the unholy trinity of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Lord Mandelson has been able to deflect attention from Labour’s calamitous stewardship.

The Prime Minister in particular has been brazen in threatening Sir Fred with court action to retrieve a pension package that was signed off by the City minister, Lord Myners. This is grandstanding of the cheapest kind. Sir Fred’s deal is obscene, but that does not make it illegal. Mr Brown understands this, but is desperate for the searchlight of public opprobrium to be shifted away from the unfolding debacle in Downing Street. Ironic, isn’t it, that having destroyed Britain’s private pension system with a tax raid which, grossed up over 12 years, has snatched about £100 billion from personal savings schemes, the Prime Minister is now keen to preach on pensions and justice.

It’s good to see the professional political commentariat at last latching on  to what the blogosphere has been pointing out since the Goodwin pension story broke: that the affair has all the hallmarks of a diversionary campaign engineered in Downing Street.

Randall, however, has homed in on the real issue:

Last week’s £325 billion insurance scheme for RBS’s toxic assets is hopelessly flawed, according to Professor Willem Buiter, a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee. He estimates that it will cost the taxpayer £100 billion. That is three times the annual defence budget. Let’s hope that our children and theirs have a strong work ethic, because they will be paying for the profligacy of this Government long after it is booted out.

Goodwin’s pension settlement is undoubtedly repugnant, but far worse is the Government’s persistence in treating the British people as malleable, bovine idiots.

And an important question, which assuredly will be answered in due time, is: who are the “authoritative sources” who leaked details of Goodwin’s pension to the BBC’s Robert Peston, who broke the story last Wednesday, the day before Darling’s statement to the House on the RBS bail-out?

Sound and fury

prescottThe saga of Fred’s wedge has heated up nicely during the day.

Lord Myners, the minister who is under fire for apparently sanctioning the payment of Fred Goodwin’s pension, is said by Downing Street to have been “misled” by “senior figures” at Royal Bank of Scotland into believing that the settlement was an unavoidable contractual obligation.

Gordon Brown says that he “shares the public anger” at the size of the pension and is “considering every legal means at our disposal” to get some of it back.  I have to say I’d be intrigued to know what “legal means” the PM has in mind, but no doubt all will be revealed in the fullness of time.  And even if there is no means of getting the money back, at least it’s good to know that the Prime Minister is really, really cross about it.

Even John Prescott (remember him?) has waded in.  Appearing on this morning’s Today programme, the former Deputy Prime Minister said that the Government should take steps to stop payment of Goodwin’s pension:

“The feeling is so enormous: the taxpayer has rescued them. There is billions of pounds involved.

“He’s not entitled to this kind of pension – who knew about it or not, you can investigate that later. I believe [we should] take it off him and let him sue in the courts.”

All this sound and fury from Labour looks fairly obviously coordinated.  The Government realise that there is enormous public disquiet – no, anger – at the appalling mishandling of the banking crisis and the monumental public liability it has created.  Fred Goodwin and his pension are, so far as many are concerned, the last straw, a tangible distillation of everything that has been done so badly and gone so wrong. 

So the Government are using Goodwin as chaff, in an attempt to divert public opprobrium away from themselves.  Turn Fred the Shred into a hate figure, they calculate, and perhaps people will forget that it was the Government who really cocked up by agreeing to pay him in the first place.  (And how exactly did it come to pass that details of the pay-off leaked out into the public domain on the very eve of Darling’s statement to the House on RBS?)

The tactic is unlikely to work.  George Osborne correctly identified the issue in the House yesterday:

Whichever way one looks at it that obscene pension is unacceptable and the Government are on the hook. Either they did know and failed to act or they did not know and failed to ask the right questions. It is a totally irresponsible use of taxpayers’ money.

Put simply, the Government is totally stuffed on the Goodwin pension issue.  They have fouled up and at least one head may roll.  Myners would at present appear to be the most obvious candidate for sacrificial lamb,  but some may ask whether Alistair Darling, whose Treasury was responsible for conducting the manifestly deficient due diligence, should himself be facing the chop. 

Indeed, given how dreadful Darling looked yesterday, he might welcome the happy release.

Fred’s wedge

fred-goodwinA faltering performance by the hapless Alistair Darling yesterday, when he told the House about the Government’s plans to pump a further £25 billion into Royal Bank of Scotland and insure up to £325 billion of its toxic assets.  MPs were unimpressed, and made their displeasure plain.

The greatest anger was reserved for the £693,000 per annum pension which Sir Fred Goodwin, the bank’s chief executive, is currently enjoying at the tender age of 50.  Although, in the scheme of things, Sir Fred’s £17 million pension pot may seem small beer when incomprehensibly enormous figures are routinely tripping off ministers’ tongues, Members clearly viewed the issue as emblematic of the whole gross, egregious foul-up.

Darling was challenged by George Osborne as to whether, as Stephen Hester, RBS’s new chief executive, had asserted on yesterday’s Today programme, Goodwin’s pension had been agreed with the Government:

Finally, on excessive bonuses and rewards for failure, once again the Chancellor has promised there will be none. Yet this morning he said in his radio interview that he learned only a very short time ago that Sir Fred Goodwin was paid off with a £650,000 a year pension funded by the taxpayer. However, the new chief executive, who was on the same radio programme, said that the deal was negotiated with the Government. Who exactly in the Government knew about that deal? Will the Chancellor answer the claims that Fred Goodwin’s departure was delayed so that he could secure that pension? Whichever way one looks at it, that obscene pension is unacceptable and the Government are on the hook. Either they did know and failed to act or they did not know and failed to ask the right questions.

Darling’s response was stumbling:

The hon. Gentleman mentioned the remuneration of Fred Goodwin. It is beyond doubt that most people find it hard to understand, given what has happened to RBS, that such an enormous pension can be paid from the age of 50. Let me explain the position. First, the agreement was not negotiated by the Government; nor was it approved by the Government. Nor would it have been-[Interruption.]

Mr. Speaker: Order. Let the Chancellor of the Exchequer answer.

Mr. Darling: The agreement on remuneration-the pension arrangements-of employees of a bank is a matter between the employee and the board of directors. Last autumn, we were told that there was a contractual agreement between the bank’s board and Sir Fred. We previously understood that his pension arrangements were an unavoidable commitment, but we did not know-we became aware of it only very recently-that the decision of the previous board of RBS to allow Sir Fred to take early retirement had the effect of increasing his pension entitlement, and that that might have been a discretionary choice. We did not know that and, on finding out-[HON. MEMBERS: "When?"] Last week, actually. It became clear that the matter may have been a discretionary choice. When we found out, I asked United Kingdom Financial Investments, which holds the shares, to discuss with the new board of the bank whether there was any scope for clawing back some or all the pension entitlement, and whether the board made the decision in full knowledge of the facts. That investigation is going on at the moment.

Darling’s palpable discomfiture almost made me feel sorry for him.  He is clearly deeply unhappy in his job, and unsurprisingly.

This morning, the issue of Goodwin’s pension is exercising the media mightily.  Gordon Brown is apparently threatening to sue, although the basis of his action is unclear.  On Newsnight last night, John McDonnell was calling for primary legislation to sort the issue out.

Fred’s wedge has all the hallmarks of a story that will run and run, causing still more damage to this unhappy, discredited Government.

Stress tested

The issue of the Lloyds – HBOS merger rumbles on, with revelations by Adair Turner, chairman of the FSA, that:

  • HBOS could have been rescued with financial help from the Government and without merging with Lloyds; and
  • both the FSA and the Treasury had known, from “stress testing” analysis carried out last October, that HBOS was heading for losses of the magnitude disclosed last week.

The disclosures will certainly put more pressure on Gordon Brown, who intervened in the merger to an extraordinary degree. 

And not only on Mr Brown.  Readers will recall that the HBOS rescue took place against the backdrop of the Glenrothes by-election, called after the death of the Labour MP, John MacDougall, on 13 August, 2008.  The election was held on 6 November, when Labour retained the seat with a remarkable and unexpected majority of 6,737.   Alistair Darling also put in his fourpence worth during the campaign, pleading for as many Scottish jobs as possible to be saved after the merger, and “making very clear” that HBOS’s HQ should remain in Edinburgh.

Mr Darling is MP for Edinburgh South West.