For many months, 6 May 2010 has been generally regarded as the most likely date of the next general election. It is, in fact, almost the last date upon which one may be held. The received wisdom has been that the Prime Minister will not want to go to the country before he absolutely has to; he will wish Labour’s position in the opinion polls to recover as much as possible and, in any event, he is temperamentally hard-wired to avoid confrontation for as long as he possibly can.
Recently, however, there have been mutterings around Westminster that 25 March now looks an increasingly likely date. This has caused some surprise, principally because a March poll date would mean canvassing during the shorter, colder days before the clocks go forward. Across the country, many thousands of valuable canvassing hours would be lost.
Today’s Sunday Times reveals why the March date is coming to the fore: Labour may not have the money for a later campaign. The party’s stream of donations appears to have dried up and its banks have clamped down on its credit. Labour’s general secretary has tried to make use of its national property portfolio to provide security for loans, but the National Executive Committee has refused to co-operate, for fear of losing assets.
On the one hand, an early election would be welcome, if it means getting rid of Brown and the rest of them six weeks sooner. The activists are up for it and we’d have no trouble turning them out.
On the other hand, canvassing in February is no fun. I know; I’ve tried it. Your hands get so cold that you can’t knock on doors and your lips become so rigid that you can’t speak.
But consider: if a winter campaign is less than appealing to an opposition well organised and hungry for victory, how likely it to inspire a demoralised, poorly led and poorly resourced Labour party? Are they going to be able to find the activists they need for a March poll?
And, if they do, how well disposed will those activists be feeling toward Mr James Gordon Brown as they scrabble around for leaflets in the torchlight?
