Monthly Archives: May 2009

Too toxic for Clegg

Today’s Telegraph reports that Gordon Brown is planning a “game-changing” move immediately after the Euro elections later this week by inviting the Liberal Democrats into Government.

Given current political climate, it is unlikely that the Lib Dems, notwithstanding their traditional predilection for political accommodations, would accept.   An ICM poll, also in today’s Telegraph, shows that the Lib Dems have now overtaken Labour in general election voting intentions; they are on 25 per cent, as against Labour’s 22 and the Tories’ 40 per cent. 

Running this through Electoral Calculus, this would give the Conservatives 376, Labour 161 and the Lib Dems 82 seats respectively.  In other words, the Lib Dems, on present voting intentions, would stand to gain an additional 15 seats.

What on earth, in the circumstances, would be the benefit to Nick Clegg of hitching his wagon to Gordon Brown’s falling star?  The Labour brand is now so toxic that even the very loosest of coalitions would be sure to contaminate any party that was associated with it.

If, therefore, there is any substance whatever to the Telegraph’s story, it serves only to illustrate still further the Prime Minister’s increasingly worrying  detachment from reality.

Vote for hope

An absolutely beautiful day, baking hot; a foretaste of what the Telegraph (yes, I still read it) promises  is going to be a “barbecue summer”.  I hope so.  The last two were washouts and we all need our vitamin D.

The Whitsun recess began only just over a week ago.  In many ways, things have stayed very much the same.  Today’s Abergele surgery was a fairly typical mix of housing and traffic, leavened with a string of constituents livid, and with good reason, over council plans to construct a wholly unnecessary  relief road.  A few did touch on expenses, saying they were becoming sick of the story and wanted a general election.  Apart from that, it was bread and butter; business as usual.

And yet, so much has changed.  The parade of tumbrels has continued in the pages of the Telegraph, pursued closely by its doubtless seething competitors.  How many of them, I wonder, are now kicking themselves that they didn’t stump up whatever was asked for the notorious DVD?

The casualties of the investigation grow daily in number; as I write, thirteen MPs, including the Speaker, have announced that they will be standing down.  How many more will follow suit in the days to come?

Few have come out of this episode well, though David Cameron’s resolute actions have apparently gained approval.  Gordon Brown, however, has no comfort whatever to take from the events of the last three weeks.  He maintains a stubbornly low profile, doing no media at all.  Iain Martin even speculates as to whether the Prime Minister is still alive.

Tomorrow, it is back to London on the gratifyingly fast new Virgin afternoon service.  And then a few days’ wait until the Euro and local elections, which those who understand these things tell us will be dire for Labour.

What then?  Will one or more cabinet members finally decide that the game is no longer worth the candle and tell Brown he really has to go?  Or will everybody bottle it, sit on their hands and allow the whole ghastly, depressing charade to continue for another twelve months, while the economy declines, the nation drifts and the electorate seethes?

Today, the Telegraph (which I do intend to continue reading) publishes a leader of sound common sense.  Don’t vote UKIP, it says; it is a wasted vote.  Don’t, even worse, vote BNP; it is a profoundly anti-Christian party, a negation of everything our parents and grandparents fought against.

And yes, I have got a vested interest, I know; but I believe that everyone who wants to see an early end to this profoundly horrible, dispiriting period in our national life should vote Conservative. 

If the Tory vote is strong and the Labour vote collapses, it may, just may, persuade even this disturbed, self-deluding Prime Minister to acknowledge at last that the game is up, that the country is disgusted, and that the only way he can hope to salvage an ounce of respect from his fellow-citizens is to call an immediate general election.

Term of art

picklesThe party chairman, Eric Pickles, was on the patch today.

Between visits to the Anglesey Sea Salt Company and a community project in Rhyl, he enjoyed a hurried working sandwich lunch speaking to activists in Holywell.  Naturally, he was asked about the expenses issue.

“I may be naïve,” mused Eric, in a Bradford accent as rich as black pudding, “but before all this started, I’d never heard the expression ‘flipping’.

“Where I come from, the word ‘flipping’ is usually followed by the word ‘heck’.”

No scowl nececessary

Interesting piece in today’s Telegraph by Fraser Nelson.

Headlined David Cameron will need a scowl and a hatchet to stop us going bust, it analyses the challenges facing the next Conservative government and concludes that our national condition is so parlous, and the remedies so painful, that Cameron’s destiny “is to be hated”.

I’m far from convinced that that is correct.  The events of the past three weeks have underlined that what voters want above all is to be treated with respect. The notion that some politicians consider themselves to be a class apart, unconfined by normal standards of behaviour, is one that has infuriated people across the country.

The expenses issue is the most flagrant example of the mindset of a political elite that thinks it knows best and can, with impunity, conduct itself in a manner far removed from what is expected of it.   Still more deplorable, however, is the view entertained by some in power  that the electorate is constitutionally incapable of handling reality and should consequently be consigned to inhabiting a fool’s paradise of the politicians’ making.

Thus, Gordon Brown happily ramped up a bogus boom founded on  unsustainable levels of personal debt and, when the bubble burst, argued with an entirely straight face that the whole appalling mess could be cleared up only by resorting to yet more borrowing.

Brown, of course, has now been rumbled; people realise, fully and bitterly, that they have been rooked.  What electors now desire, above all else, is to be treated as adults.

David Cameron understands that the Conservative party must  be straight with people if it is to receive a proper mandate to deliver  the economic and constitutional reforms that this country needs. But being candid does not mean inevitably incurring the people’s hatred.

Machiavelli wrote that it is better for a prince to be feared than loved.  In fact, better than either is to be respected.  Respect is a commodity rarely enjoyed by politicians these days. It can be received, but only if it is also given.

If David Cameron,  by treating people as grown-ups, gains their respect, he will need little more as Prime Minister.

A very special adviser

The delightful Betsan Powys, who has a truly impressive, absorbing  interest in the Legislative Competence Order (LCO) process, has written a lengthy blog post about the Housing LCO, which the Welsh select committee considered as long ago as October last year.

Readers will recall (or perhaps won’t) that the committee reported to the Secretary of State that the draft Order should be approved, with one important proviso:

The full scope of the power to be transferred under a proposed Order, rather than just the current policy intention, should be clearly expressed in the Explanatory Memorandum. Proposed Orders should be drafted so as to transfer only those powers which are required and for which a clear purpose has been established. The same considerations apply to granting to the National Assembly for Wales the ability to abolish the Right to Buy/Right to Acquire. We recommend that the proposed Order be revised so that this power is specifically excluded from its scope. We further recommend that the proposed Order should not proceed unless this proposed revision is made.

Given that the Assembly Government had made it very clear in evidence to the committee that it did not intend to abolish the Right to Buy, one might have thought that this would cause few problems to WAG and that the LCO would proceed fairly swiftly.

Not so; it caused fury in certain quarters of Cardiff Bay and outrage on the part of the Assembly’s presiding officer,   Lord Elis-Thomas.  The committee’s recommendation, it seemed, had caused a grave constitutional crisis of the greatest magnitude.  Everybody got terribly aerated.

So the LCO sat on a shelf for a bit, gathering dust, while tortuous, protracted negotiations proceeded between WAG and the Wales Office.  Eventually, a compromise, not to say fudge, was agreed, which provided the Secretary of State with a veto if WAG should ever decide it wanted to abolish the Right to Buy.  I personally thought that was a constitutionally questionable solution to the non-problem, in that it effectively turned the Secretary of State into a Governor-General.  However, both sides – WAG and the Wales Office – were by now intent, above all, on saving face and both seemed to regard the rather dodgy lash-up as acceptable.

The draft Order was duly tabled; but then disaster struck.  The Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments examined it and reported it for “doubtful vires”.  In other words, the committee was less than satisfied as to  the Order’s legality.

The Order was consequently pulled;  heaven knows when it will proceed.  Betsan talks of a “third way” to restore it, but, as to what that may be, gives no inkling.

All this is, of course, awfully silly.  WAG is effectively holding its breath and stamping its feet in an effort to obtain a competence it never, ever intends to exert.  Where’s the sense in that?

One other point of interest that emerges from Betsan’s post is that it reveals that the individual who proposed the Secretary of State’s veto as a solution to the impasse was a Plaid Cymru special adviser.  I understand that the gentleman in question is a very special, special adviser who carries a great deal of clout within the Plaid hierarchy.

What, one might ask, was a senior Plaid official thinking, in proposing that the Secretary of State in Whitehall should have the  power to inhibit Assembly legislation by extending a downward-pointing thumb?

I have my own theories, but I really don’t want to deprive Betsan of the opportunity of penning  another post about this truly fascinating subject.

Are you all still with me?

Not a tweet

Regular readers will recall that, a couple of months ago, I blogged that I would have a go at Twitter.  Well, in all honesty, I never got around to doing so.  I didn’t see the point.  I still don’t.

Unfortunately, however, I still receive e-mails from Twitter fans (Twitterphiles?  Twitterati?) announcing  that they are “following” me.   It makes me feel such a heel, as if I’d stood someone up.

So, in the hope that they read this blog, may I apologetically inform those  who have signed up for regular Jones tweets that, unfortunately, I’m going nowhere on Twitter.  I profoundly regret subscribing to it  in the first place and, if there was a means of doing so, I would be resigning from it immediately.

Really, really sorry and all that.

And I still feel a complete  heel.

Meanwhile, in the outside world

North Korea has conducted a second nuclear test.

Twenty times more powerful than the last detonation, in October 2006, the explosion had approximately the same destructive force as the Nagasaki atom bomb.

An emergency session of the UN Security Council is being convened this afternoon; the role of China will, as before, be crucial.

The North Korean threat to the peace of the region and, indeed, the world cannot be overstated. A firm, united international response is called for.

The affair should remind us of the need for clear, undistracted, attention to world affairs on the part of the British government.  The problems in Parliament must, however, amount to a very significant distraction. 

Another good reason for a general election as quickly as possible.

Enter Miliband minor

Alan Johnson appears to be staking his claim this morning as the front-runner in any race to replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader after the Euro elections. 

Cleverer than Hazel Blears (no “YouTube if you want to” sneers from him), Johnson is dressing up his pitch as a helpful call for the PM to finish the “constitutional renewal” exercise that briefly engaged the grasshopper-like attention of Tony Blair before he became bored with it.

Coincidentally perhaps, though probably not, Ed Miliband makes a similar call in today’s Guardian, urging the new Speaker to initiate a root-and-branch review of the way politics is done in this country.

Miliband minor played a very cautious game on the sidelines when his elder brother made his poorly conducted leadership bid last year.  David Miliband’s failure of nerve in 2008 lost him enormous support within the party; he is unlikely to have sufficient following to be able to mount another attempt now.

Ed, however, wisely stayed quiet in the brief, damp, cold summer of 2008.  His own time may soon be coming. 

Not an immediate leadership challenge – the moment is not right – but he is positioning himself as a strong and serious contender after the general election.

Also ran

On Friday, the Welsh Select Committee published its report on the potential benefits of the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics for Wales.

Our conclusion, in essence, was that those benefits, frankly, are precious few.  The Olympics were promoted as the UK’s Games in London.  They will, in fact, be London’s Games in London.

Some heats of the football competition will be held in Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium, but, given that it is unquestionably the second-finest (some might argue the finest) stadium in the UK, that is hardly a surprise.  The football tournament will need to use most of the large stadia in the country.

North Wales gets nothing out of the Olympics, despite the pre-bid talk of holding the sailing competition there.  The mountain biking event, for which Wales would appear to be especially well qualified, will take place in Essex.

Welsh business is also deriving minimal benefit from the Games.  The Olympics offer the opportunity of £6 billion in procurement contracts; however, Tessa Jowell told us in evidence that the contracts so far awarded to Welsh companies via the Olympic Delivery Authority’s supply chain were worth “tens of thousands of pounds rather than millions”.  That evidence was contradicted by the Welsh Assembly Government, which said that two of the contracts awarded were worth over £10 million.  However, in the scheme of things, even that is relatively small beer.

Most worryingly, from a constituency viewpoint, the report concludes that Wales will be disadvantaged as a consequence of the diversion of Lottery money to the Olympics.  In fact, the disadvantage is already being felt.  In Clwyd West, a number of recent well-presented projects, including one major sports development, have been rejected.

The Olympics will probably be the most important and memorable sporting event to be held in this country in the 21st century.  It is such a huge pity that the only memories of the Games that will be generated in Wales will come from a handful of football matches in Cardiff.

Seeing red

Our priest, Fr Dennis Kay, reminded us at morning service today that next Sunday is Pentecost and urged us all to wear one red item of clothing “in a place where it can be seen”.

This puts me in an immediate quandary.  I possess no red ties, for reasons  which, I hope, are fairly obvious.  Like most MPs, I tend to sport my tribal colours about my neck.

I could display a red hanky in my top pocket, but I fear that Don Touhig has probably taken out a patent on that look.

Don Touhig

 That leaves me with red socks.  I confess that I do possess a couple of pairs and used to wear them fairly often, particularly when I wanted to cut what I thought was a daring, sporty dash. 

Then I read an article in the Times by my colleague Michael Gove, pointing out just how fatal a sartorial solecism is the wearing of red hosiery:

The decision to go for red is meant to show an air of devil-may-care individuality and loveableness. But I fear it’s the sartorial equivalent of hanging a “You don’t have to be mad to work here, but it helps!” poster above your desk. It is, in the profoundest sense of the word, a deeply Brentian act.

For me, that settled the issue. Michael is a regular panellist on The Moral Maze, so he knows about these things.

This leaves me in an impossible position. There aren’t many other articles of clothing that lend themselves to the colour red.  Red shirts went out with Garibaldi.  A red jacket would make me look like a member of the entertainment staff at Butlin’s.

So I’m afraid that I’ll just have to risk the opprobrium of Fr Kay and turn up next week in my usual sober grey ensemble.

Or I may, just may, retrieve my red socks from the bottom of the drawer and hope that Michael Gove doesn’t get to hear about it.

Not a witch-hunt

A measured, almost Cantuarian, leader in today’s Independent, entitled “The pursuit of MPs is becoming a witch-hunt”.

The following gives a flavour of the article:

No one disputes that The Daily Telegraph had a marvellous story on its hands when it acquired details of every expense claim made by MPs going back four years. And the newspaper had every right to expose questionable conduct from our parliamentarians. Our democracy functions best when our politicians are kept under close scrutiny by the media. Yet the manner in which this newspaper has been delivering these revelations, day after day, is in danger of doing more harm than good to our body politic.

I am sure that this cannot be the same Independent that sent the following e-mail to MPs last Thursday:

PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

The Independent on Sunday is preparing continued extensive coverage of the MPs’ allowances and expenses issue, for publication this week.

You will be aware that some details of expenses details claimed over the past four years have been revealed by the Daily Telegraph in recent weeks.

However, rather than rely on that newspaper for information on MPs’ claims, we are compiling our own details of expenses and allowances claimed over the past four years.

In the interests of balance, we would be grateful if you could provide full details of your claims during this period, or indicate where the information is already available – for example, in a local newspaper. Do you believe the expenditure detailed within them is reasonable, and that you represent good value for money for taxpayers? Are you satisfied that you can justify every item included in your claims? Please specify, in the light of current concerns, any items you now consider to be questionable.

Gordon’s Groundhog Day

groundhog_dayThe Independent splashes today with a story headlined Brown pins hopes on ‘national plan’ to revive Labour fortunes.

Written by Andrew Grice, the Indy’s political editor, the article outlines the dynamic action the PM proposes to take in the immediate aftermath of the Euro elections in June:

A “national plan” for Britain will be unveiled by Gordon Brown as he tries to fight back after Labour’s expected elections rout next month, The Independent has learnt.

Mr Brown intends to “hit the ground running” immediately after the European Parliament election results are announced on 7 June. His “national plan” is also bound to be seen as his personal survival plan as some Labour backbenchers are expected to call for him to stand down if Labour performs badly.

Reading the above on my laptop at 6.00 a.m., I had the unsettling feeling of having woken up on Groundhog Day

Consider the following, written by Grice and Nigel Morris in the Indy on 18 December, 2007:

Gordon Brown will launch a fightback in the new year in which he will try to regain the political initiative after a series of setbacks.

He told his Cabinet yesterday that ministers should “hit the ground running” after the Christmas break with policy announcements and told them to explain how they fitted into the wider “opportunities for all” agenda.

And the following by the Indy’s deputy political editor, Colin Brown, on 8 May, 2007:

Gordon Brown is ready to hit the ground running after Tony Blair resigns with an ambitious strategy for his first 100 days in office that will herald a radical change of approach on the Middle East and the NHS and a clean-up of Whitehall.

All this business of hitting the ground is clearly doing nothing for the Prime Minister’s health.  He really should tell his official spokesman to try to think up a new, less hackneyed metaphor before he briefs the Indy.

Or, perhaps, invest in a parachute.

Read all about it

Yesterday, I gave the Daily Post access to all my expenses files for the last four years.

Their report may be found here.

Apart from the joky headline (which is pretty gentle, anyway), I can’t complain about the way they’ve dealt with it.

Brown’s boob

gordonbrownAn extraordinarily feeble performance by Gordon Brown at PMQs today.   He looked tired and dejected, clearly worn down by the events of the last few weeks.

His response to David Cameron’s first question, however, was astonishingly and revealingly defeatist:

Mr. David Cameron (Witney) (Con): This morning the Prime Minister said that a general election would cause “chaos”. What on earth did he mean?

The Prime Minister: What would cause chaos would be the election of a Conservative Government, and public spending cuts.

Mr. Cameron: So there we have it: the first admission that the Prime Minister thinks he is going to lose!

Brown flashed one of his spooky smiles, shook his head and tried to look nonchalant.  But he had boobed, big time; he knew it and, what was worse, all his backbenchers knew it.

Cameron pressed on with the attack; Brown tried to parry with routine  talk of “Tory cuts”.  Few cheers from behind him, and a lot of glum faces.

The Prime Minister must surely realise that this can’t go on.  The country, even he must know, is desperate for an election.  The prospect of another year of Labour is more than most people can bear.

The longer he hangs on, the worse it will get; and the more the country will punish him.

Not Julius Nicholson

NicholsonChief witness at the select committee’s session today on digital inclusion was Lord Carter of Barnes, a.k.a. Stephen Carter, the Prime Minister’s “gatekeeper”, and the author of the Digital Britain report.

I had expected a Julius Nicholson clone, but not so; Carter was personable and highly articulate.  Indeed, he was possibly one of the best communicators we have had before the committee.

He was, however, prone to lapse into management-speak from time to time, for example, when he opined that “this is where the question starts to get crunchy”.

Crunchy?

Memorably, also, he told us that the internet will be “the network reality of all of our lives”.  No, I haven’t a clue what that means either, but at the time it sounded impressive and almost inspiring.

Carter’s most famous quotation, however, dates back to his time at NTL.  The Independent reported it thus:

No one has suggested that he was responsible for the state of NTL’s finances, but aggrieved investors filed a law suit in New York, accusing him of having “issued false statements” to hype up NTL’s share price. One damning allegation in the documents they filed was that during a telephone conference in 2001, Carter had been asked by NTL customer marketing director how he could persuade investors that “NTL is going to be OK, when you know it isn’t”. Carter’s reported response was: “What I tell them is nine-tenths bullshit and one-tenth selected facts.”

Whether or not the Indy’s account is true, I can only say that Carter’s language before the committee today was a lot more temperate, if not quite so crunchy.