Softening up

Long gone are the days of budget purdah, when the Chancellor would cloister himself away for weeks on end prior to emerging from No 11 clutching his red box.   Ken Clarke brought an end to that tradition.

However, no budget in recent years has been more heavily trailed than this year’s, which is also the latest in recent memory.  You can read about it here and here and here.  And if you want to see the Chancellor making a brave pre-budget face of the downturn, you can view his viral YouTube video here.

All this authorised leaking has been done for one very good reason: you get the electorate used to the idea of bad news, rather than hit them with it on budget day.  So when Alistair Darling announces the £15 billion “efficiency savings” (not spending cuts, you understand), the £160 billion public sector borrowing, and the estimate of a decade to sort out the public finances, it won’t seem too bad.

Instead, attention will be focused (Labour hope) on the metaphorical rabbit Darling pulls out of the hat on budget day.  There’s bound to be one, at least; there always is.  Expect some apparent largesse for pensioners or some funny business with tax credits.

But remember what happened when Gordon Brown announced the 10p tax band in his 2007 budget.  Hailed as a triumph by his back benchers, who waved their order papers in immoderate glee, it was later shown to be an enormous con when the Red Book was examined.

That’s the way it is with Labour budgets; there is always a legion of devils in the detail. 

And this year, given the bombed-out state of the economy, it is likely that the Chancellor will be obliged to be even more creative than usual.