Monthly Archives: March 2009

Helpful intervention

peter-hainAn article by Peter Hain in today’s Independent underscores the extent to which Labour is currently rudderless, shell-shocked by the impact of the financial crisis.

Titled, ironically  in New Labour fashion, “Gordon, you are without a narrative”, the article is tellingly subtitled: “Unless the Prime Minister can develop a ‘compelling prospectus’, Labour is destined to lose next time round.”

The article is a reasonably accurate analysis of Labour’s current plight:

To win, Labour must be seen as the credible force for change. That means changing itself – and there is not much time left. Although a return to “Old Labour” would be disastrous for the party, it needs to move on from New Labour as well. The best of New Labour needs to stay, including its recognition that business and competition are not automatic enemies but potential allies in the mission for social justice. We must also retain a broad appeal to Middle Britain, including those many voters Tony Blair won over in 1997.

But equally, there is no escaping that New Labour has lost five million voters, and not simply because of longevity in power. On basic core vote issues of affordable housing, job security, employment rights, crime and migration, Labour has to do much better and much more. The same is true of progressive issues: human rights, the environment, international policy and respect for the public service ethos.

Peter’s article is remarkable, not in that it says anything of great insight – which, frankly, it doesn’t – but in that it is written by a senior party figure just over twelve months from the most likely date of a general election. 

To talk now of change, and to cast around for options for that change, smacks of little more than despair, when the governing party should, rather, be communicating confidence and clear vision.  Indeed, Peter could scarcely enunciate his own despair any more plainly:

Despite Gordon Brown’s best efforts, Labour has not had a clear enough narrative right across government. Ministers have developed a habit of making technocratic speeches where the very purpose of Labour gets lost. On TV and radio, some now sound more like managers than politicians.

I’m sure Peter meant the article to be helpful, but, from Labour’s perspective, it isn’t.  In fact, it looks very much like the start of the sort of internal debate that parties usually engage in shortly after a general election has been lost.

Behind closed doors

careless-talkGood to see that, amid all the economic and political turmoil, a rigid, iron discipline is still maintained in the uppermost echelons of the Government:

This from today’s Independent:

Mr Brown opened a cabinet “away day” in Southampton with a remarkable lecture about the dangers of allowing the contents of private discussions to enter the public domain. He ended his 10-minute dressing-down with a stern reminder that the whole Government would suffer critical damage if cabinet confidentiality were not preserved.

“He said we would all suffer if any more details leaked out,” one cabinet minister revealed last night.

Scottish humbug

humbugsThe historian Thomas Babington Macaulay once remarked that: “We know no spectacle so ridiculous as the British public in one of its periodical fits of morality.”

That was very much my reaction when I read the following pronouncement delivered yesterday by our august Prime Minister to the Scottish Labour party conference in Dundee (and what a fun event that must be):

“Only government can make the markets work in the public interest and not their own interest.

“We believe that markets need not just money men but morals, that being fair matters far more than being laissez-faire and that banks must always serve the public, not just serve themselves.”

“Being fair matters more than being laissez-faire” has a nice, alliterative ring to it; on the other hand, so did “British jobs for British workers”, and look where that landed the Prime Minister.  No doubt some No. 10 backroom boy burned the midnight oil very late to craft that particular piece of New Labour humbug.

Politicians who talk of morality are setting themselves upon a pedestal that is frequently rocky and unstable.  So, indeed, it is in the case of this Government.

Was Labour acting in the strict public interest and not its own, for example, in urging Lloyds Bank to take over HBOS, with its panoply of toxic assets, just when it was staring defeat in the face at Glenrothes?   Was Alistair Darling entirely altruistic when, at the same time, he “made it very clear” to Lloyds that the headquarters of HBOS should remain in Edinburgh (for whose South West constituency he just happens to be MP) after the takeover?

And what of Adair Turner’s revelation that the Government applied pressure to the FSA to regulate companies like HBOS with a “light touch” and to avoid being “heavy and intrusive”?  Was that an example of stern Labour financial probity?

The more one looks at Labour’s stewardship of the economy over the last twelve years, the more examples one finds of the way they have used the system for their own unalloyed political ends.   Morality has had precious little to do with it.

The trouble with humbug, as Gordon found out with “British jobs”, is that it tends to stick in your teeth.   He should have learned to avoid it by now.

Still waiting

The Government is set to announce a package that will provide Lloyds Banking Group with £250 billion insurance against losses from toxic assets, most of which are the consequence of Lloyds’ ill-judged takeover of HBOS.  The consequence is likely to be a public shareholding in Lloyds of 70 per cent.

I am sure that the shareholders of Lloyds are livid at this; until the takeover, Lloyds was a solid, unspectacular bank that had escaped the worst effects of the downturn.  Now, as a result of the poor judgment of its directors, compounded by the desperation of the Government to avoid politically-damaging job losses in Scotland, they are collectively the proud owners of a minority interest in a debt-laden, unwieldy financial behemoth.  It will be years before they recover their losses, if ever.

Another good reason for the Prime Ministerial apology that is so long a-coming.

The QE effect

The announcement by the Bank of England that it is going ahead with quantitative easing – pumping £75 billion of newly issued money into the economy – is, by any standards, sobering.  It is, effectively, the last shot  in the Bank’s locker.  Interests have now been cut almost to zero, to no discernible effect.  Deflationary trends are accelerating worryingly.

Quantitative easing – or “QE” as we will no doubt come to know it – is untried in the UK, but it was pursued in Japan in the early part of this decade; there is still much debate as to whether it was a success.

Mervyn King says that the action should “work in the long term”.  However, the truth is that nobody at this can say with any certainty what the QE effect will be.

As George Osborne says, this is a leap in the dark.  It is a course of  action born of desperation; if it doesn’t work, the outlook is bleak indeed.

Sheepish answer

Prime Minister’s Questions, and I had been drawn sixth in the ballot – a position which normally would have assured me of being called. 

Unfortunately, Harriet Harman was deputising, in the absence of the Prime Minister in Washington, and her answers tend to be, shall we say, comprehensive.  As a consequence, I was not called until 12.30. 

I had wanted to go on the Goodwin pension saga, but Vince Cable covered it fairly comprehensively.  I therefore decided to raise the issue of compulsory electronic tagging of sheep, which is likely to inflict enormous damage on the Welsh farming industry: 

Mr. David Jones (Clwyd, West) (Con): The right hon. and learned Lady will be aware that electronic identification of sheep will become mandatory for all animals born after 31 December this year. Does she share the view of the Minister of State, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs that the cost of complying with those rules outweighs the benefits? Does she recognise that those costs may well force many thousands of British farms out of the industry, and will she urge the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to apply whatever pressure it can to the EU to drop this ridiculous and unnecessary legislation? 

Harriet looked bemused.

Ms Harman: I know that identification of sheep is very important as part of infection control. The hon. Gentleman will know that that is a serious issue. Therefore, I will ask my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to write to him on the issue.

Most helpful. 

Not a lot of sheep in Camberwell.  Or Peckham, for that matter.

Costs nothing

gordon-brownGordon Brown, it would appear, has rejected the advice of Alistair Darling and other cabinet colleagues and refused to take the opportunity, on his visit to the United States, to apologise for the deficiencies of the financial regulatory system put in place under his Chancellorship.  

According to the Telegraph: 

he defiantly believes that the problems were unique and were not the fault of the system he put in place and presided over while at the Treasury for a decade.

The difficulty for Mr Brown is that increasingly few people share his view.  Last week, Adair Turner, the chairman of the FSA, told the Treasury select committee that the Authority had been subject to political pressure to apply a non-intrusive “light touch” in regulating the financial sector. 

Today, John Kingman, head of UK Financial Investments, the company that represents the taxpayer’s interests in the quasi-nationalised banks, also appeared before the Treasury Select committee and was equally critical.  To quote the Telegraph:

He told the [committee]: “There are issues around how the Treasury and the regulator identified problems.”

When asked whether he was reluctant to admit that the system that Labour put in place in 1997 had been a massive failure, he replied: “I don’t think I am massively reluctant.”

It is becoming increasingly obvious that Labour were guilty of encouraging a lax style of regulation on the part of those whose responsibility it was to be alert to the very problems that have manifested themselves in the British financial sector.  Certainly, the sub-prime problem began in America, but the British institutions were insufficiently rigorously regulated so as to minimise the impact of the economic tsunami when it hit the UK.

 Brown positively encouraged the boom and was, equally, content to tolerate (to quote Adair Turner) “a style of regulation and a philosophy in regulation which was, in retrospect, mistaken.” 

And of course Brown won’t apologise.  It’s not in his nature.  He wants to be seen with Obama bestriding the world that he, personally, has saved.   

The word “sorry” doesn’t figure in his vocabulary.

Black day for North Wales

hotpointMore bad news for many North Wales families today.  The Indesit / Hotpoint factory at Bodelwyddan, one of the largest employers in the area, is due to close at the end of July, with the loss of 305 jobs. 

This will clearly have a major impact on North Wales.  Hotpoint has been established here for many years, and generations of some families have worked for the company. 

The employers tell me that the closure has been made necessary by the speed and depth of the downturn, which made the factory unviable, despite an investment of £30 million over the last six years.

 I intend to have further discussions with both management and unions and have written to the DWP and the Welsh Assembly Government asking what they propose to do to help the Hotpoint employees.

Change of tack?

An interview Alistair Darling has given to the Telegraph appears to  signal a change in strategy on the part of the Government – or at least some elements of it. 

In it, Darling acknowledges that the Government has failed in its regulation of the banking sector:

“There are a lot of lessons to be learnt by regulators, governments, all of us.

“The key thing that went wrong was that a culture was allowed to develop over the last 15 years or so where the relationship between what people did and what they got went way out of alignment, especially at the top end.

“If there is a fault, it is our collective responsibility. All of us have to have the humility to accept that over the last few years, things got out of alignment.”

It looks like the Government now accepts that the electorate haven’t bought the “global crisis” line that Gordon Brown had been spinning for the past nine months or so and has decided instead  to try apology and humility as a way of attempting to make its peace.

Darling also appears to rule out changing the law to recover Fred Goodwin’s pension fund and  to accept that the money may, indeed, be irrecoverable – directly contradicting  Harriet Harman, who adopted a far more bellicose stance in her Andrew Marr Show interview yesterday.

The Telegraph suggests that the pressure is now on Gordon Brown “to offer an apology for his role in the financial meltdown during a visit to Washington this week.”

If such an uncharacteristic thing were to happen, it would be fascinating indeed and proof positive that Labour has decided on a complete change of tack.

Keeping it in the family

wales-office1

A beautiful spring day, so I decide to take a lunchtime walk along Whitehall, which is presently undergoing major roadworks. 

Passing the Wales Office, I am delighted to see that its occupant is receiving proper recognition from the highway contractor.

Harriet’s kite

harmanHarriet Harman has made a most interesting intervention in the affair of Fred’s wedge.

Speaking on the Andrew Marr Show yesterday, Ms Harman said:

 “To get a severance payment when you’ve led a bank to the brink of collapse with record losses and thousands of people fearing for their jobs and requiring the public to step in with loans to back up the bank, that is a matter of public interest now and the Prime Minister has said that that is unacceptable.

 “The Prime Minister has said it is not acceptable and therefore it will not be accepted. It might be enforceable in a court of law, this contract, but it’s not enforceable in the court of public opinion and that’s where the Government steps in.”

 The first paragraph of Harman’s pronouncement is unimpeachably correct.  It’s the second paragraph that’s a bit problematic.  Putting aside the gloriously New Labour phrase “court of public opinion” (shades of “people’s princess” there), one must ask: how precisely is the Government going to step in?

 Notwithstanding the Prime Minister’s spluttterings about “legal action”, most lawyers I have spoken to take the view that a contract is a contract, and unless something seriously untoward, and as yet undisclosed, happened, the Government is, sadly, stuck with it.  Which is why someone really ought to be resigning.

 Of course, primary legislation could be used to reverse the pay-off, but that would be a pretty draconian step and would also set a disturbing precedent.  It would imply, effectively, that whenever the Government entered into an ill-judged legal arrangement, it could undo the damage simply by trooping its parliamentarians through the lobbies.   Such a course of action would do nothing for the confidence of anyone intending to deal commercially with HMG, particularly at this difficult time.

 Harriet Harman is, of course, Leader of the House, so would be in the best position to know if the Government is indeed intending to table an appropriate Bill. 

 However, given that No. 10 is apparently “distancing itself” from the suggestion that it intends to pursue the legislative course, it would appear that the PM prefers to await the advice of m’learned friends and that Harriet – for whatever reason, and I’m sure with helpful intent  - was just flying a kite.

Diversionary tactics

In an intelligent article in this morning’s Telegraph, Jeff Randall points out that Fred Goodwin has been set up as an Aunt Sally (albeit a very highly remunerated one) in an attempt by the Government to shift attention from the dog’s breakfast it is making of the British economy:

If the inappropriately named Goodwin did not exist, the Government’s Department of Propaganda would need to invent him. By casting Sir Fred as the pantomime villain – the credit crunch’s Dick Dastardly – the unholy trinity of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Lord Mandelson has been able to deflect attention from Labour’s calamitous stewardship.

The Prime Minister in particular has been brazen in threatening Sir Fred with court action to retrieve a pension package that was signed off by the City minister, Lord Myners. This is grandstanding of the cheapest kind. Sir Fred’s deal is obscene, but that does not make it illegal. Mr Brown understands this, but is desperate for the searchlight of public opprobrium to be shifted away from the unfolding debacle in Downing Street. Ironic, isn’t it, that having destroyed Britain’s private pension system with a tax raid which, grossed up over 12 years, has snatched about £100 billion from personal savings schemes, the Prime Minister is now keen to preach on pensions and justice.

It’s good to see the professional political commentariat at last latching on  to what the blogosphere has been pointing out since the Goodwin pension story broke: that the affair has all the hallmarks of a diversionary campaign engineered in Downing Street.

Randall, however, has homed in on the real issue:

Last week’s £325 billion insurance scheme for RBS’s toxic assets is hopelessly flawed, according to Professor Willem Buiter, a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee. He estimates that it will cost the taxpayer £100 billion. That is three times the annual defence budget. Let’s hope that our children and theirs have a strong work ethic, because they will be paying for the profligacy of this Government long after it is booted out.

Goodwin’s pension settlement is undoubtedly repugnant, but far worse is the Government’s persistence in treating the British people as malleable, bovine idiots.

And an important question, which assuredly will be answered in due time, is: who are the “authoritative sources” who leaked details of Goodwin’s pension to the BBC’s Robert Peston, who broke the story last Wednesday, the day before Darling’s statement to the House on the RBS bail-out?